The May Central Texas Housing Report brought some intriguing shifts to the Austin–Round Rock–San Marcos market—shifts that may hint at what’s ahead for both buyers and sellers.
🔹 Inventory is Climbing
New listings jumped 8.9%, pushing inventory up to 5.0 months—the most we’ve seen in a while. That’s great news for buyers who’ve been stuck choosing from slim pickings for the past couple of years.
🔹 Sales Softened Slightly
Closed sales dipped 3.8%, and the median price came down to $449,900, a modest 1.6% drop from this time last year. For sellers, it’s still a competitive market—but price sensitivity is real.
🔹 Buyers Are Getting Serious
Here’s the most eye-opening stat: Pending sales surged 16.1%, the strongest showing so far this year. This is a strong indicator that we’re heading toward a more balanced, healthier market.
What About Interest Rates?
This is where things get complicated.
The Federal Reserve just released its updated economic forecast—and while they held interest rates steady for now, the tone was cautious.
Here’s what the Fed sees:
Slower growth (just 1.4% expected in 2025, down from 2.5% in 2024)
Higher inflation, possibly rising to 3% by year’s end
Unemployment ticking up to 4.5%
And most notably: Only one rate cut expected in 2026, revised down from two cuts forecasted back in March.
What’s holding them back? Tariffs, uncertainty, and inflation.
Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that recently announced (and mostly postponed) tariffs are muddying the outlook. These duties could push prices higher again—something the Fed wants to avoid after finally bringing inflation near its target. In April, inflation cooled to 2.1%, with core inflation still a bit elevated at 2.5%.
So, while mortgage rates have stabilized, don’t expect major relief just yet. The Fed is in “wait and see” mode—especially with the tariff situation still unfolding and political pressure mounting.
What This Means for You
📍 For Buyers:
With more inventory and slightly lower prices, this could be your window—especially before rates shift again or prices rebound.
📍 For Sellers:
Even with a slight softening in price, buyer activity is strong. Homes that are well-priced and well-prepped are still moving fast.
📍 For Investors:
The uptick in pending sales and more stable pricing could be a green light—especially if you’ve been waiting for the market to feel more predictable.
If you’re wondering how this affects your specific real estate goals—whether buying, selling, or investing—let’s talk. This could be your moment to move.
📩 DM me anytime or schedule a strategy session today.
