The real estate market is shifting, and the numbers tell an interesting story. But what does it actually mean for someone looking to buy or sell a home?
For several years, we’ve heard about low housing inventory, bidding wars, and buyers competing against multiple offers. Sellers held most of the cards, and buyers often had to make quick decisions, sometimes paying more than asking price just to secure a home.
Today, we’re seeing a very different market.
According to a recent Redfin report released October 14, 2026, there were 63% more home sellers than buyers nationwide in September. That’s the largest imbalance Redfin has recorded since it began tracking this data in 2013.
But before we assume the housing market is in trouble, let’s look at what these numbers actually mean.
Breaking Down the 63%: It’s Not What You Might Think
When you hear there are 63% more sellers than buyers, you might picture six sellers competing for every buyer.
That’s not the case.
According to Redfin’s September 2026 estimates:
1,510,784 sellers were in the market nationally.
928,892 buyers were actively looking to purchase.
That’s approximately 163 sellers for every 100 buyers.
In simpler terms, there are roughly 1.6 sellers for every buyer, not six sellers for every buyer.
Think about that for a moment.
For every 100 potential buyers shopping for a home, there are approximately 163 sellers competing for their attention.
That’s a significant shift in negotiating power.
Austin’s Numbers Are Even More Eye-Opening
While the national numbers are interesting, real estate is local. And here in the Austin area, the difference is considerably greater.
Redfin estimates that in September 2026, the Austin metro had:
18,087 sellers
7,834 buyers
130.9% more sellers than buyers
That’s approximately 2.3 sellers for every buyer in the Austin market.
Imagine 10 buyers actively searching for homes while 23 sellers are trying to attract those buyers.
Not every home is competing directly with every other home, of course. Price point, neighborhood, school district, condition, and location still matter tremendously.
But the message is clear: Buyers have more choices, and sellers have more competition.
Why Are There So Many More Sellers Than Buyers?
I believe several factors are contributing to this imbalance.
1. Affordability remains a challenge.
Even with more homes available, monthly mortgage payments remain a significant obstacle for many potential buyers. Home prices, mortgage rates, insurance, and property taxes all affect affordability.
2. Buyers are being more selective.
When inventory was extremely limited, buyers often felt pressure to make offers quickly. Today, many have the luxury of comparing homes, negotiating repairs, and taking additional time to make decisions.
3. Some sellers are still pricing their homes for yesterday’s market.
This is one of the biggest challenges I see in a changing market. A home may have sold for a particular price two or three years ago, but that doesn’t automatically establish its value today.
Buyers aren’t necessarily willing to pay a premium simply because a seller believes their home should be worth more.
4. Life doesn’t stop because the housing market changes.
People still get married, have children, relocate for jobs, retire, and downsize. Those life events continue to bring homes to the market, even when buyer demand slows.
What Does This Mean if You’re Selling a Home?
Here’s where I think sellers need to pay particular attention.
Having more sellers than buyers doesn’t mean your home won’t sell.
It means your home needs to compete.
In today’s market, sellers should focus on three important things.
Price it correctly from the beginning.
The first few weeks on the market are important. Overpricing can cause a property to sit while competing homes attract attention.
Make the home stand out.
Professional photography, presentation, condition, and effective exposure matter. Buyers with choices are less likely to overlook issues when another home down the street may offer better value.
Understand that negotiating isn’t losing.
Whether it’s contributing toward closing costs, making reasonable repairs, or adjusting the sales price, flexibility can be the difference between selling your home and watching it sit on the market.
The goal shouldn’t simply be to list your home. The goal should be to sell it under the best terms the current market will support.
What Does This Mean if You’re Buying a Home?
For buyers, this market may present opportunities we haven’t seen in several years.
More inventory can mean more time to evaluate properties, fewer competing offers, and greater opportunities to negotiate.
Depending on the property and the seller’s circumstances, buyers may be able to negotiate:
A lower purchase price
Seller contributions toward closing costs
Mortgage interest-rate buydowns
Repairs identified during inspections
More favorable closing timelines
But there’s an important distinction.
A buyer’s market doesn’t automatically mean every home is a bargain.
Well-priced homes in desirable locations can still attract significant interest. And a home that has been sitting on the market isn’t necessarily overpriced or a good deal.
The key is understanding the value of the individual property, not just the broader market statistics.
Does This Mean Home Prices Are About to Crash?
Not necessarily.
A surplus of sellers creates downward pressure on prices, but it doesn’t guarantee a housing crash.
Many homeowners still have substantial equity, and some have low mortgage rates that allow them to remain in their homes rather than sell at a price they don’t like.
That can limit how far prices fall.
The more likely outcome will vary by neighborhood, price range, and property type. Some homes may require meaningful price reductions, while others may hold their value because of location, condition, or limited direct competition.
That’s why I believe it’s important to avoid making real estate decisions based solely on national headlines.
My Take: The Market Has Changed, but Opportunity Hasn’t Disappeared
After years of watching sellers enjoy a significant advantage, we’re now seeing the pendulum swing toward buyers.
For sellers, this market requires realistic expectations, thoughtful pricing, and a willingness to compete.
For buyers, it offers something that was difficult to find just a few years ago: choices and negotiating leverage.
But here’s what I would encourage both buyers and sellers to remember.
Real estate isn’t simply about timing the market. It’s about making the right decision for your circumstances.
A family needing more space shouldn’t necessarily put their lives on hold waiting for the perfect interest rate. And a homeowner preparing to downsize shouldn’t assume that waiting another year will automatically produce a better sales price.
Every situation is different.
With approximately 131% more sellers than buyers in the Austin area, understanding your specific neighborhood and price range has become more important than ever.
The market is speaking. The question is whether buyers and sellers are listening.
Mungia Real Estate
Helping Austin-area buyers and sellers make informed real estate decisions through education, experience, and a local perspective.
Source: Redfin, “Home Sellers Now Outnumber Buyers By Record 63%,” October 14, 2026. Figures reflect September 2026 estimates. Redfin estimates buyers using proprietary and MLS data and uses active listings as a proxy for sellers. Figures are seasonally adjusted and subject to revision.